Iran on the Edge: The Islamic Republic’s Path to Chaos

USPA NEWS - Step by Step into Destruction: Iran on the Brink of Collapse

The Islamic Republic of Iran; Ali Khamenei is a virus, and the antidote lies in the hands of the Iranian people.

Before explaining why the antidote is with the Iranian people, let me outline the reasons:

For 46 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran, through murder, looting, and oppression, has inflicted suffering not only on its own people but across the Middle East:
• Lebanon
• Syria
• Iraq
• Israel
• Yemen

Iran has poisoned the region by creating and supporting extremist and terrorist groups such as Hezbollah (a Shia’a militia in Lebanon) or the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, among others. The consequences have not spared Iranians themselves, while neighboring countries look on with fear, anger, and resentment.

But why is the continued rule of the Islamic Republic and Ali Khamenei so dangerous, and why could it lead to internal and regional chaos?
1. Iran’s demographic and religious diversity: Iran has a significant Sunni population, especially in Sistan and Baluchistan, and Kurdish populations in Kurdistan. Continuous repression exacerbates ethnic and religious divisions.
2. History of separatism and opposition: Some separatist groups exist, although the majority of Iranians condemn them. These social and political divisions show that any weakening of the central government could trigger chaos.
3. Economy and regional wealth: Every part of Iran is rich in natural and economic resources. If regions were to break away or become unstable, foreign powers could intervene, complicating the crisis even among G7 countries.
4. Authoritarian leadership: Khamenei’s repressive policies and restrictions on freedoms fuel widespread internal discontent, increasing the likelihood of uprisings and regional disorder.

Key question for the continuation of the article

Why does this situation put Iran on a path toward internal collapse and regional chaos?

The Islamic Republic’s Legacy of Hatred: A Threat to the Middle East

For decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has not only oppressed its own citizens but has actively spread violence and hatred across the Middle East. This systematic export of extremism has left almost none of Iran’s neighbors with goodwill toward the Iranian people.

Imagine for a moment: you live in your own country, practicing any religion—Buddhism, Christianity, Judaism. Across your border, an authoritarian regime gradually establishes extremist groups in your cities, explicitly opposing your beliefs, and forces you to adopt its ideology. This scenario may sound extreme, but it reflects the lived reality of the region under Tehran’s policies.

Between 2011 and 2025, nearly 700,000 people were killed in Syria, and approximately 6 million were displaced, largely as a result of Iranian intervention and the backing of extremist groups.
Without the support of the Islamic Republic, Bashar al-Assad’s regime may have fallen much earlier. Lebanon experienced a similar fate, including the 33-day war in 2006, which saw Israel forced to respond to Hezbollah’s provocations. Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine have endured comparable disasters:

• Iraq: The rise of militias backed by Tehran, escalating internal conflict and instability.
• Yemen: The Houthi insurgency, supported and armed by Iran, causing widespread devastation.
• Palestine: Hamas, an extremist and violent group, receiving direct support from the regime, inflicting terror even on its own people.

All of these conflicts, all of these extremist groups, trace back to the policies and sponsorship of the Islamic Republic.

The Implication for the Region

The presence of the Islamic Republic fuels deep resentment among neighboring countries and peoples. This is not just a political tension—it is a genuine threat to regional stability. The wounds inflicted by Tehran’s violent interventions have created a volatile environment. At any moment, affected populations might seek revenge against ordinary Iranians, making the continuation of the current regime a tinderbox for regional chaos.

This is the first and most immediate reason why the Islamic Republic’s survival is dangerous. But this is only the beginning. The consequences of its policies extend far beyond immediate borders, touching every corner of the Middle East, and the longer the regime persists, the more inescapable the instability becomes.

The Plight of Afghans Under the Shadow of Iran’s Regime

Iran shares language, culture, and deep historical ties with Afghanistan. Yet, when a murderous regime rules in Iran, how can it offer real refuge to people from Afghanistan, especially when the Iranian population itself is unprotected and oppressed?

After the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, many Afghans sought safety in Iran. But how did the Islamic Republic respond?

The regime exploited these refugees to suppress the Iranian people, using the promise of residency to coerce them into helping quell demonstrations. Reports some of which remain unconfirmed indicate that during nationwide protests in Iran, such as those in 2022, many Afghan residents seeking asylum were pressured to suppress demonstrations in exchange for the promise of legal residence.
Even more distressing, in the past six months alone, the Islamic Republic has reportedly forcibly deported between 500,000 and 800,000 Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan under the authority of the unrecognized Taliban government. Such actions inevitably fuel deep resentment among Afghans toward Iran and further tarnish the country’s image as a place of refuge.

Implication

Iran’s policy toward Afghan refugees demonstrates the regime’s prioritization of power and control over human rights. This betrayal of people seeking safety highlights a broader pattern: the Islamic Republic not only fails to protect its own citizens but actively undermines vulnerable populations in neighboring countries.

Deep Discontent Among Iran’s Own Citizens: A Looming Internal Crisis

Another critical reason for instability in Iran is the profound dissatisfaction among its Sunni population, which constitutes approximately 41% of the country’s population. This sizable community has historically been treated as second-class citizens. Many Bahá?ís remain imprisoned for expressing even the slightest dissent. Christians face harassment and persecution. Iran also hosts the second-largest Jewish population in the region, yet the government remains deeply anti-Semitic.

Beyond religious oppression, ethnic divisions—among Turks, Baluchis, Kurds, and Arabs—further exacerbate internal tensions. Iran also faces severe economic, water, environmental, and security crises, which amplify public frustration.

Over the past 46 years, political killings have claimed so many lives that countless families and citizens demand justice.
It is clear: Iran stands on the brink—not just of destruction, but of an extraordinarily dangerous and damaging internal conflict—if the Islamic Republic remains in power.

These are not mere warnings—they are harsh realities. By any measure, calculation, or analysis, the probability of these events is no longer theoretical; it may already be inevitable, if the Islamic Republic continues to rule Iran.
What is the Solution?

Should Iran continue under the same regime? Can the international community come together to prevent the collapse of a nation, its history, and its civilization? Is it possible to separate the Iranian people from this oppressive regime? The answer is clear: the Iranian people are not to blame.

What should be done?

Support. Maximum support for the Iranian people.

Unfortunately, Iranians have already exhausted all forms of civil resistance—strikes, protests, and demonstrations. They have risked their lives for freedom from the captors known as the Ayatollahs:
• They protested.
• They were killed.
• They went on strike.
• They were imprisoned and killed.
• They called for international support—yet countries that claim to defend human rights often met with the regime and advocated for diplomacy.

The solution is simple: listen to the Iranian people. Support them fully.

War is not the answer. Armed conflict would only allow the Iranian regime to exploit the people and manipulate their emotions.

Diplomacy with a tyrannical regime is impossible.

Iran has only one path forward—swift liberation from the oppressive regime. This must be accompanied by:
• National reconciliation among Iranians.
• Friendly engagement with neighboring countries.
• Trade, development, and cooperation—not war.

The sooner this path is taken, the better the chances of avoiding the catastrophic events that have been repeatedly warned about. Iran’s people deserve the opportunity to rebuild their nation, restore trust with their neighbors, and reclaim their place in the region as a partner in peace and progress.
Geopolitical and Economic Warning to Governments and Nations

Western governments, as well as the peoples of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon, all stand today at the edge of a profound and historic danger.
If the voice of the Iranian people is ignored, the world will soon face a reality where not only Iran, but the entire region and even the global order itself, will be destabilized.

Imagine a day when oil can no longer be exported, gold loses its strategic value, and vital trade and revenue routes are systematically blocked. In such a scenario, the Islamic Republic and its opportunistic allies will pave the way for the total domination of foreign powers.
At the same time, China—by securing exclusive access to Iran’s vast lithium reserves—will not only dominate the global electric vehicle industry, but also rise to the position of the world’s primary economic superpower. The West, and the region at large, will be left paralyzed and strategically disarmed.

But the crisis does not stop at resources and industries.
It will only take the closure of the Silk Road trade routes, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 30% of the world’s oil supply passes, and the destabilization of the Bab al-Mandab Strait in Yemen, to bring global commerce to a grinding halt.

Worse still, if access to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean becomes possible only under the permission and control of Russia, and if eventually the fish, marine food supplies, and oil of the Persian Gulf are monopolized by China, then no regional or global power will be able to restore balance.

The warning could not be clearer:
This is not a hypothetical scenario—it is a process already in motion, and with every passing day of inaction, its realization becomes more certain.

The solution is not complicated. In fact, it is simple:

Act now, before it is too late.
The Continuation of the Islamic Republic: A Threat Beyond Imagination

The survival of the Islamic Republic will not merely extend the crises we are already witnessing—it will accelerate and intensify them to a degree far beyond what many anticipate. This threat is not distant. It is far closer, and far more urgent, than we dare to imagine.

Forget the debate about nuclear energy

Forget arms deals or temporary diplomatic bargains.
The truth is this: the regime has already crossed every red line. With each passing day, it becomes more dangerous, not only to its own citizens but to the entire international order. The Islamic Republic is not a conventional regional actor—it is a perpetual crisis machine that leaves no long-term benefit for anyone.

The historic mistake of 1979 must not be repeated. When the United States under President Jimmy Carter abandoned the Shah and allowed Khomeini to be elevated through the media, the assumption was that stability and geopolitical interests would be safeguarded. But what was the outcome?
Forty-six years later, the world is facing one of the most dangerous regimes of the 21st centuryone that has taken not only the Iranian people but the entire Middle East hostage.

It must be understood: the very balance of global power will shift if the Islamic Republic continues to exist.
New superpowers will rise, the international equilibrium will collapse, and the West will find itself weakened against an ascendant Eastern bloc led by China and Russia.
A Clear and Implementable Plan to Isolate the Regime and Save the Nation

Fundamental Principle (Non-Negotiable): weaken and isolate the regime — not the Iranian people.

All measures must be targeted, multilateral, and accompanied by serious humanitarian safeguards to prevent harm to civilians.
1) Starting Point and Urgency
• Estimates place the Iranian diaspora between 4 and 8 million people. This community represents a significant political, financial, and professional resource for a peaceful transition.
• The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints; any disruption there immediately affects the global economy.
• Historical evidence shows that past financial and oil sanctions have significantly reduced the Iranian regime’s revenues — provided they are enforced multilaterally and rigorously.

2) Immediate Diplomatic Measures (First Few Weeks)

1. Coordinated Diplomatic Isolation
• Close or downgrade embassies, expel key regime diplomats, and suspend bilateral agreements that confer legitimacy on the regime.

2. Public Recognition of a Legitimate Alternative
• Form a coalition of democratic countries to recognize and engage with a temporary Diaspora Council as the legitimate political interlocutor for transition. This council must be formed through transparent democratic elections and commit to pluralism and human rights.
3) Economic Pressure: Complete Oil and Financial Embargo (First Few Months)

Goal: Cut the regime’s access to foreign currency without harming civilians.

A) Comprehensive Multilateral Oil Embargo
• The EU, U.S., Asian buyers, and Gulf states must simultaneously stop Iranian oil imports and deny insurance, banking, and shipping services.
• Actively prevent sanctions evasion through ship flag changes, shell companies, or ship-to-ship transfers.

B) Financial and Asset Sanctions
• Freeze assets of the IRGC, security officials, and their affiliated commercial networks.
• Impose secondary sanctions on foreign banks and companies that knowingly facilitate these flows.
C) Full Arms Embargo
• Prohibit all arms, dual-use components, and drone technologies from reaching Iran.

4) Security and Regional Measures

• Protect international shipping routes (Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb) through multinational coordination without direct military confrontation.
• Prevent opportunistic gains by Russia or China through coordination with Turkey, India, Japan, and Persian Gulf states.

5) Humanitarian Safeguards (Essential)
• Explicit exemptions for food, medicine, and medical equipment with rapid authorization for humanitarian organizations.
• Establish an International Iran Support Fund to deliver medicine, financial aid to striking families, and support internal protests through secure and auditable channels.
• Plan for potential refugee flows and equitable cost-sharing among nations.

6) Mobilizing the Diaspora and Establishing a Responsible Opposition
1. Elected Diaspora Council
• Conduct transparent elections among Iranians abroad (online and in-person) with international oversight.

2. Hybrid Leadership Model
• The council nominates a temporary leadership team. Any candidate (e.g., Prince Reza Pahlavi or others) must publicly commit to democracy, human rights, and transitional justice to gain support.

3. Support from Western Governments
• Official recognition of the council as a legitimate political actor and provision of financial, media, and legal support.

4. Independent Oversight
• An international board ensures financial accountability and prevents corruption.

7) Media, Justice, and Accountability
• Strengthen independent Persian-language media and protect journalists.
• Document human rights violations for use in international courts.
• Prepare transitional justice mechanisms, including truth commissions, reparations, and cleansing of corrupt structures.

8) Risks and Mitigation
• Refugee waves ? provide rapid aid and share responsibility among nations.
• Civilian harm from sanctions ? enforce practical humanitarian channels.
• Regime propaganda ? publicize visible humanitarian support.
• Sanctions evasion ? closely track shipping and sanction intermediaries.

9) Timeline
• 0–6 weeks: diplomatic isolation, asset freezes, establish humanitarian mechanisms, form Diaspora Council.
• 1–6 months: full oil embargo, prevent sanctions evasion, financial support for domestic strikes.
• 6–18 months: officially recognize the selected opposition, initiate transitional justice.
• Long term: country reconstruction, return of diaspora experts, reintegration into the global economy.

10) Final Summary

1. Multilateral coordination is essential. Unilateral actions are ineffective.
2. Support the people, not harm them. Humanitarian exemptions must be real and effective.
3. The diaspora is the most critical resource and should act as an active partner in transition.
4. Avoid repeating the mistakes of 1979. The international community must not empower an illegitimate opposition or a new dictatorship.

Personal Note from Saman Hajibabaei:

I thank every individual who has read this article and remind you that Iran is part of this planet. I hope that we can all love every inch of this land and understand that we all belong to the Earth. We must be kinder to one another.

I am not writing this for journalism alone; my goal is to inform, perhaps even one person, but more importantly, for the future generations of all nations to learn from our mistakes. Know that the Iranian people were not indifferent — they were powerless to change the government until today.

Do not repeat our mistakes. Future generations must understand: a monk must be a monk, religion must be separate from politics, and politicians must serve the people.

With respect, I declare this article free for copying and publication.
Thank you for your patience and attention.